Seller Market Brief — 2417 Birchwood Dr, Flower Mound

01 / Recent comparables NTREIS comps + Denton CAD

The comps set the benchmark.

For a 4-bed, 2,230 sqft home here, the closed sales point to this band.

$520,000 – $550,000

Expected sale range

Closed comps of comparable 4-bed homes · median sold $540,000 · sold at 99.7% of list

$520K

$550K

$535,000likely sale price

The range is real and it's narrow. Comparable homes sold within 90 days at essentially full price — 99.7% of list. The only question left is where in this band we price to sell fast.

02 / Your buyer pool today HMDA 2025 + Freddie Mac PMMS

The people actually buying here, and what they earn.

This isn't a guess. These are the real buyers who closed on homes in your census tract, and what today's rate lets them carry.

Median buyer income

$183,000

Median loan they took

$460,000

Purchase loans (2025)

32 in-tract

• What "in-tract" means: the Census Bureau divides the country into tracts of roughly 1,200 to 8,000 people. Tract 217.26 is the specific slice of Flower Mound that contains this home, not the zip and not the city, the immediate neighborhood.

Cost to own this home at $535,000

$3,716/mo

Freddie Mac PMMS · 6.47%

Loan (P&I) · $2,898

Taxes · $588

Ins.

Principal & interest · $2,898 Property taxes · $588 Insurance · $230

Two independent datasets agree, and the buyers can carry it.

•The same number, two ways. Your comps point to $535,000. The homes buyers actually financed in this tract closed at a median $535,000 too, straight from mortgage records, not listings.

•Real down payments. Buyers here put about 15% down, so the $460,000 median loan reflects how they actually buy, not an assumption.

•Room to spare. On a $183,000 median income, this home's $3,716/mo sits comfortably within reach, not at the ceiling.

•Buyer power is rising. The median loan in this tract climbed from $405,000 to $460,000 in two years, up 14%.

•Strong, mainstream financing. 78% conventional and 16% VA. Qualified buyers, and cash purchases aren't even counted here.

Buyer loans by year (HMDA)

▲ up 14% since 2023

—— median loan ($)█ loans per year (volume)

The line is what buyers financed; the bars are how many bought. After the 2023 rate jump, loan sizes climbed back and past their prior level, real buyer power moving up, on steady volume.

03 / Your tax position Live · Denton CAD + Truth-in-Taxation

The property tax behind your buyer's payment.

I pulled your county record and the adopted rates, so the tax built into your buyer's payment is the real number, down to the unit, not a round guess.

Property tax in the payment

$588/mo

$7,057 / year · combined rate 1.69% · with homestead

$140,000 ISD homestead exemption 20% Town of Flower Mound exemption 1% Denton County exemption

✓

It's a fifth of the payment, and it's exact.

That $588 is the tax slice of the $3,716 your buyer carries each month. Pricing to a real payment means knowing the real rate stack, not estimating it — most listings never do this math.

Your adopted rate, by taxing unit · 2025 (Denton CAD)

Lewisville ISD1.1178%

Town of Flower Mound0.3873%

Denton County0.1859%

Combined rate1.6910%

04 / What it means for your number ShowingTime demand · 75028 · 30 days

Three ways to price it, and where the buyers actually are.

We pulled live showing demand for your zip, by price band. The traffic is wildly uneven, and that unevenness is the entire strategy.

Where the buyers actually are ShowingTime · zip 75028 · last 30 days

Total buyer showings by price band, May 24 – Jun 23. 163 showings across the zip, and they are nowhere near evenly spread.

$450–475K
EVENT-BASED

$475–500K

$500–525K

$525–550K
MARKET

$550–575K
no listings

$575–600K
ASPIRATIONAL

$600–625K

$625K+

Event-based tier ($450–475K) Market tier ($525–550K, your pricing) Aspirational tier ($575–600K) No-listing gap ($550–575K)

Aspirational Pricing

List above the market

$589,000

25 showings · 6.2 per listing

$575–600K band — real demand, but for bigger homes

× That traffic is touring 3,000+ sqft homes; yours is 2,230
× Priced here, yours is the overpriced outlier buyers skip
× Sits, goes stale, then chases the market down with cuts

The $575K+ sold comps ran 3,140–3,178 sqft (Ponderosa, Sugarberry). Yours is 2,230.

Market-Based Pricing

Price to the market

$539,900

27 showings · 6.8 per listing

$525–550K band, last 30 days

✓ Real, steady traffic right where the comps land
✓ Sells at about 100% of list in ~2 weeks

Like 1037 Sun Ridge ($539K→$545K, 3 days) and 1008 Sanmar (100.8%, 1 day).

Event-Based Pricing

Price into the hottest demand

$474,900

65 showings · 40% of all demand · 10.8 per listing

$450–475K band — the hot bucket

✓ Drops your home into the highest-traffic band in the zip
✓ An offer deadline turns that traffic into competing bids

Highest upside. Bids can run toward or past $535K, though the final number depends on how the offers are run.

Showings are live ShowingTime data for zip 75028, May 24 – Jun 23, 2026. The $550–575K band reads zero because there were essentially no listings there, not proof of no demand. The $575–600K demand is real but skews to larger homes than this one. Showing demand shows where buyers look, not the final sale price, which under event-based pricing depends on execution.

Most buyers buy a payment,
not a price.

The comps set the benchmark.

The people actually buying here, and what they earn.

The property tax behind your buyer's payment.

It's a fifth of the payment, and it's exact.

Three ways to price it, and where the buyers actually are.

List above the market

Price to the market

Price into the hottest demand

Let's lock your price off these numbers.

Most buyers buy a payment,not a price.

The comps set the benchmark.

The people actually buying here, and what they earn.

The property tax behind your buyer's payment.

It's a fifth of the payment, and it's exact.

Three ways to price it, and where the buyers actually are.

List above the market

Price to the market

Price into the hottest demand

Let's lock your price off these numbers.

Most buyers buy a payment,
not a price.