RCRyan ColstonDFW Seller Advisory
Prepared for [Owner name]
2417 Birchwood Dr, Flower Mound, TX 75028
June 23, 2026
Seller Market Brief

Most buyers buy a payment,
not a price.

Your sales price, in most cases, is limited by what your buyer can actually afford each month. Here is what just sold around you, your county assessment, and where I'd price to sell fast and net the most.

Beds / Baths
4 / 2
Living area
2,230 sf
Year built
1994
Lot
0.195 ac
Subdivision
Sherwood Est. IV
Your market, right now Live NTREIS CMA · pulled 6/23/26
17
homes sold within ½ mile in the last ~90 days
$540K
median sold price (closed comps)
99.7%
of list price, on average
15 days
median time to sell when priced right
01 / Recent comparables NTREIS comps + Denton CAD

The comps set the benchmark, and the county is reaching high.

For a 4-bed, 2,230 sqft home here, the closed sales point to this band. Notice where Denton County has your assessment, well above it.

$520,000 – $550,000
Expected sale range
Closed comps of comparable 4-bed homes · median sold $540,000 · sold at 99.7% of list
$520K
$550K
$535,000likely sale price
$594,066county's assessment
The county appraises your home about $59,000 above what it would sell for. That gap is real money, and it's the protest I'd file on your behalf. More on that on page 3.
02 / Your buyer pool today HMDA 2023 + Freddie Mac PMMS

The people actually buying here, and what they earn.

This isn't a guess. These are the real buyers who closed on homes in your census tract, and what today's rate lets them carry.

Median buyer income
$149,000
Median loan they took
$405,000
Purchase loans (2023)
39 in-tract
What "in-tract" means: the Census Bureau divides the country into tracts of roughly 1,200 to 8,000 people. Tract 217.26 is the specific slice of Flower Mound that contains this home, not the zip and not the city, the immediate neighborhood.
Cost to own this home at $535,000
$3,515/mo
Freddie Mac PMMS · 6.47%
Loan (P&I) · $2,697
Taxes · $588
Ins.
Principal & interest · $2,697 Property taxes · $588 Insurance · $230
The numbers triangulate. A $149,000 income carries about $3,480/mo at a conservative 28% housing ratio, and more at the 30–33% most buyers use. Owning this home runs $3,515. Real buyer incomes, today's rate, and your comps all point to the same number near $535,000.
03 / Your tax position Live · Denton CAD + Truth-in-Taxation

Your real tax picture, and two things the next agent won't catch.

I pulled your county record and the adopted rates. Here is what you actually pay, and the two findings that work in your favor.

What you pay today
$652/mo
$7,820 / year · 2025 actual · rate 1.69%
$140,000 ISD homestead exemption 20% Town of Flower Mound exemption 1% Denton County exemption
1

The county's assessment runs high. That's a protest.

Denton County appraises your home at $594,066. The comparable sales say about $535,000. I'd file that protest for you, and in a typical year that gap puts several hundred dollars back in your pocket.

2

Your buyer's taxes won't jump. That's a selling point.

Because it will likely sell below the county's assessment, your buyer is looking at about $588/mo with the same homestead exemptions, slightly less than you pay now. Most listings can't promise a buyer there's no tax surprise. Yours can.

Your adopted rate, by taxing unit · 2025 (Denton CAD)
Lewisville ISD1.1178%
Town of Flower Mound0.3873%
Denton County0.1859%
Combined rate1.6910%
04 / What it means for your number ShowingTime demand · 75028 · 30 days

Three ways to price it, and where the buyers actually are.

We pulled live showing demand for your zip, by price band. The traffic is wildly uneven, and that unevenness is the entire strategy.

Where the buyers actually are ShowingTime · zip 75028 · last 30 days
Total buyer showings by price band, May 24 – Jun 23. 163 showings across the zip, and they are nowhere near evenly spread.
65
5
9
27
0
25
18
14
$450–475K
EVENT-BASED
$475–500K
$500–525K
$525–550K
MARKET
$550–575K
no listings
$575–600K
ASPIRATIONAL
$600–625K
$625K+
Event-based tier ($450–475K) Market tier ($525–550K, your pricing) Aspirational tier ($575–600K) No-listing gap ($550–575K)
Aspirational Pricing

List above the market

$589,000
25 showings · 6.2 per listing
$575–600K band — real demand, but for bigger homes
  • × That traffic is touring 3,000+ sqft homes; yours is 2,230
  • × Priced here, yours is the overpriced outlier buyers skip
  • × Sits, goes stale, then chases the market down with cuts
The $575K+ sold comps ran 3,140–3,178 sqft (Ponderosa, Sugarberry). Yours is 2,230.
Market-Based Pricing

Price to the market

$539,900
27 showings · 6.8 per listing
$525–550K band, last 30 days
  • Real, steady traffic right where the comps land
  • Sells at about 100% of list in ~2 weeks
Like 1037 Sun Ridge ($539K→$545K, 3 days) and 1008 Sanmar (100.8%, 1 day).
Event-Based Pricing

Price into the hottest demand

$474,900
65 showings · 40% of all demand · 10.8 per listing
$450–475K band — the hot bucket
  • Drops your home into the highest-traffic band in the zip
  • An offer deadline turns that traffic into competing bids
Highest upside. Bids can run toward or past $535K, though the final number depends on how the offers are run.
The demand isn't where sellers assume. 40% of all buyer traffic sits in the $450–475K band; the demand above the comps is for homes 3,000+ sqft, not yours. Priced right, that low-end traffic is your leverage.

Showings are live ShowingTime data for zip 75028, May 24 – Jun 23, 2026. The $550–575K band reads zero because there were essentially no listings there, not proof of no demand. The $575–600K demand is real but skews to larger homes than this one. Showing demand shows where buyers look, not the final sale price, which under event-based pricing depends on execution.

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05 / Beyond the sale

I already found your tax protest. I file it for my clients every May.

Your county assessment is running about $59,000 over what recent comparables support, and that is exactly the case I take to the appraisal district. It saves the average homeowner a few hundred to a couple thousand a year. That's the kind of agent I am after the sale closes, not just during it.

Next step

Let's lock your price off these numbers.

If the math makes sense, we go. If it doesn't, you still walk away with the clearest read on your home anyone has given you, plus a tax protest I'd file for you. That's the only ask.

Book my pricing strategy session
Ryan Colston · DFW Real Estate Call / text (214) 555-0188 Email ry@rycolston.com